EU steel carbon dioxide emissions fell unsurprisingly in 2009 by a third, taking steel’s contribution down to 5%, or so of the total, DB says in this report. The current surge in steel prices is likely to boost restocking by the industry, and so long as the prices don’t go bump in the night (unlikely), European steel production will perk up quite a lot this year, raising CO2 emissions from blast furnace/converter-based producers, perhaps by 10-15% y/y. This would again mean the industry has excess EUAs, but not to the extent of last year.
SBB 30 March The European steel sector is expected to show a 30% fall in emissions of CO2 in 2009, according to a recently published report from Deutsche Bank. The official data from the Commission in Brussels for all sectors is due to be available on 1 April.
Emissions from the EU steel industry fell faster than in any other sector in 2009, the report believes. It suggests there was an absolute fall of 40m t in CO2 equivalent to 95m t from 135m t in 2008. Total emissions from all sources are forecast to fall year-on-year by 10.4% to 1,900m tonnes in 2009 from 2,120m t in 2008.
These figures would suggest that European steel contributed some 5% of EU CO2 emissions in 2009, down from 6.4% in 2008.
The 2009 numbers are expected to mark the low point of European emissions. Deutsche is forecasting a rise of 5% in total volumes in 2010, and 2% in 2011 and 2012. This would follow the slow recovery in demand in the EU this year, as well as re-stocking by industries “particularly steel,” notes Deutsche Bank.